Sensex Jumps 700 Points on IT Earnings as Bitcoin Slides to $63,500

Bitcoin slid to roughly $63,500 on Friday, down 1.9% in 24 hours, while India’s Sensex jumped more than 700 points on a blowout earnings report from Tech Mahindra that lit up technology stocks. Both moves trace back to the same week of news: cooling U.S. inflation, a Federal Reserve that suddenly looks less likely to raise rates, and crude oil climbing on fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities.

Indian equities had an earnings catalyst working in their favor. Bitcoin did not, and with its ETF flows still swinging between inflows and outflows week to week, traders showed little appetite to treat Friday’s dip as a buying opportunity.

Tech Mahindra’s Beat Sparks a Sensex Rally

The BSE Sensex opened 349 points higher Friday at 77,535.92, then kept climbing. By mid-morning it was up 543 points, or 0.58%, to 77,729.92, and the NSE Nifty 50 had added 159 points to reach 24,231.85. Gains built past 619 points as the session wore on, with the index pushing toward a 700-point advance by the afternoon.

The trigger was specific. Tech Mahindra, an IT services company and one of the Sensex’s 30 constituents, reported a 28.4% jump in consolidated net profit for the June quarter to Rs 1,465 crore and voiced confidence about demand. Its shares climbed as much as 3%, and the Nifty IT index rose nearly 2% in early trade, led by Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies and Reliance Industries.

Not every sector joined in. Nifty Financial Services and Nifty PSU Bank both traded lower, and Sun Pharmaceutical, Bharti Airtel and Trent ranked among the session’s biggest laggards. Asian markets broadly fell Friday, tracking an overnight selloff in U.S. semiconductor stocks, which made India’s IT-led bounce more of an outlier than a regional trend.

The rally followed a subdued Thursday, when foreign institutional investors sold a net Rs 4,205.56 crore of Indian equities and the Sensex closed after a 493-point swing tied to geopolitical and oil jitters. Friday’s gain also landed inside a mixed earnings season that has already hit shares including Wipro’s post-earnings selloff and ICICI Lombard’s 15% drop.

Bitcoin Slides to $63,500 as Iran Risk Offsets Cooler Inflation

Bitcoin told a different story. The token was trading near $63,500 Friday, down about 1.9% over 24 hours, according to Vikram Subburaj, chief executive of Giottus, an Indian cryptocurrency exchange. Softer U.S. inflation data had reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, but renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and rising oil prices pulled demand for crypto back down.

The retreat capped a volatile stretch. Bitcoin had climbed close to $64,800 on July 15 after June’s headline inflation cooled to 3.5% and core inflation eased to 2.6%, a reading soft enough to gut bets on a near-term hike. Brent crude has since risen for three straight sessions to above $85 a barrel, following President Trump’s threat of further strikes on Iran, and that mix of easing rate fears and rising energy costs has left Bitcoin stuck below its own recent highs.

Subburaj laid out the levels traders are watching into the weekend.

A push back above $65,000 would stabilize Bitcoin’s short-term structure, Subburaj said. Losing the $63,400 support level would put a retest of $62,000 back in play.

The Fed’s Rate Math Just Turned Friendlier

Bitcoin began 2026 above $93,000 and tumbled to a 21-month low near $58,000 in late June, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his first meeting in the role and removed the rate cut markets had priced in for the year. The repricing hit risk assets broadly, and Bitcoin dropped from the low $70,000s toward $60,000 within weeks.

It has since clawed back ground. A weak June jobs report, showing just 57,000 new jobs against forecasts near 115,000, first eased fears of further tightening in early July. This week’s cooler inflation print did more damage to hike bets: implied odds of a July increase fell from 43% to 13% right after the release, CoinDesk reported. By Friday, Giottus pegged the odds even lower, at 11%, down from 25% a week earlier, with markets pricing roughly 26 basis points of tightening by December.

Not everyone reads the setup as purely defensive. “That’s a scenario the markets aren’t pricing in, and it would be rocket fuel for investors’ already unstoppable exuberance,” said Nic Puckrin, a markets expert and former Goldman Sachs analyst, describing what a surprise rate cut instead of a hike could do to Bitcoin.

Prediction markets are not leaning that way. Traders are pricing a hold as the heavy favorite for this month’s Fed decision, with the small remaining probability tilted toward a hike rather than a cut.

Are Bitcoin’s ETF Flows Actually Turning?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have swung from a nine-figure outflow to three straight days of inflows this week, but the totals remain small next to June’s record withdrawals. The pattern points to stabilizing demand, not yet the sustained buying that would confirm a durable recovery.

June was the worst month on record for the funds, with roughly $4.5 billion pulled out, and Citigroup responded by cutting its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and trimming its inflow forecast to zero. Year-to-date net outflows have run close to $5.8 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.

An outflow does not necessarily mean bitcoin gets dumped at a loss. It means investors are redeeming ETF shares, and an explainer on how bitcoin ETF flows work notes the fund typically sheds coin to meet those redemptions, which is why sustained outflows still show up as real selling pressure in the spot market.

• What we know: ETFs recorded a $424.7 million outflow on July 13, followed by inflows of $181.1 million on July 14 and $107.7 million on July 15, then a preliminary $45.7 million more on July 16.
• Assets across the ETF complex still total in the tens of billions of dollars, per a live tracker of ETF net flows and holdings.

• What’s unconfirmed: whether stronger spot demand follows the recent inflows, something Giottus says has not yet happened.
• Whether the funds string together enough consecutive inflow days to reverse June’s damage before the Fed meets again.

Bitcoin has not reclaimed the $65,000 level despite the improved flow picture.

Long-Term Holders Buy While Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater

On-chain data tells a similarly mixed story. Long-term holder capitulation, the pace at which older coins get sold at a loss, has started retreating from its cycle peak, and buyers stepped in to absorb supply around the June lows.

But Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000, the average price recent buyers paid. As Bitcoin approaches that level, some of those buyers are likely to sell just to break even, which caps any rally before it gathers real momentum. Derivatives traders have been trimming bearish positions too, but stronger spot buying has yet to follow, based on Giottus’s read of the market.

Some large holders never stopped buying. Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy, said the company’s tracker now shows 843,775 BTC on its balance sheet, worth close to $54 billion at current prices, extending a run of purchases that has continued through the ETF turbulence.

Altcoins Fall Harder Than Bitcoin

The pullback hit smaller tokens even harder than Bitcoin.

• Ethereum fell 3.3% to $1,856
• BNB declined 1.4% to $571
• XRP lost 2.4% to $1.09
• Solana dropped 2.4% to $75.13
• TRON eased 0.5% to $0.323

Bitcoin’s 1.9% decline looked mild by comparison. Every token above lost more ground than Bitcoin did over the same 24 hours, a pattern typical of risk-off days when capital rotates toward the largest, most liquid crypto asset first.

The damage extended into crypto-adjacent equities. American Bitcoin, a bitcoin mining and treasury company, has fallen more than 95% from its peak, erasing over $600 million of the stake held by Eric Trump, son of the U.S. president.

The Next Test Arrives at the Fed’s July Meeting

Subburaj named three catalysts for the days ahead: the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, GDP and PCE inflation data due July 30, and developments in the oil market tied to the Iran standoff.

Investors should avoid chasing short-term rebounds. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 and ETF inflows become more consistent.

That is Subburaj’s guidance to Giottus clients this week.

The Federal Reserve meets July 28 and 29. GDP and personal consumption expenditures inflation data follow on July 30.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and carry substantial risk of loss. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication on July 17, 2026.